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-Fatik B. Thapa Magar, former, Member, Legislature-Parliament Nepal
Pre CA Prediction
Before
the Constitution Assembly (CA) Poll, big media houses, political
parties, academicians and people in general predicted that the Nepal
Communist Party (Maoists) would be third in the CA poll. According to
the survey report of Interdisciplinary Analysts, Nepal Communist Party
(UML), the cadre-based organization, will obtain 27-30 percent of
popular vote, and Nepali Congress (NC) will be the second as they will
secure 23/24 percent of popular vote; Maoists or Madhes Movement Party
will get the third position. A survey revealed that UML would get 78 seats, NC 68 and Maoist 11 in the CA poll. However, the actual results showed that these were just myth facts and figures.
Following are the reasons why actual results were opposite to predictions:
1. Maoist Party used all possible tactics:
When news came that the Maoists would become the third largest party, (although some doubted this prediction and still others thought they would draw flaks/get no seats) they used all possible means and tactics (saam, dam, danda ved, as often said in the classical Hindu-political plan) to win. It is rumoured that they banned candidates who were non-Maoist from canvassing in the Maoist-dominated constituencies.
UML and NC were thinking that the major election battle was between them. They did not realize their major rival would be the Maoists as the results ultimately made clear.
2. People wanted Change:
For the eight years since 2056 (B.S), there was no election in Nepal. Youth under 26 years of age voted for the first time in this election. The 18-26 year olds were 4.1 million literate, the participants of the Popular Movement of 2062/63. These youths were either unemployed or underemployed. They all voted Maoist regardless of their family voting patterns. So while the children of a family voted for the Maoists, their parents voted along traditional party lines. Our youth thus became the major voter base of the Maoists. Furthermore the mostly rural women also voted in favor of the Maoists, wanting a new power to take the reins. Three million people who voted in the election of 2056 (B.S) didn’t vote this time, either because they have emigrated, or because of their age factor or death. They were the voters of UML or Congress in the last election. Parties failed to take this shift in voter patterns into account.
3. Anti-Incumbency nature of people:
Because the people of Nepal saw no political or economic improvements since 2046, even when major parties like NC and UML were elected in 2048, 2051 and 2056, they voted for the new party. They preferred new faces, not those of Rajendraprasad Pandey, Gobindaraj Joshi, or for that matter, the face of the illustrious Surya B. Thapa.
4. Role of independent intellectuals:
Once UML general secretary Madhav K Nepal claimed to sweep the Maoists up after election which independent intellectuals didn’t like. The independent intellectuals in Kathmandu were found to side with the Maoists. They put their arguments thus: 1. Such CA issues as restructuring the state, inclusion of nationalities etc. are among the most important items on the Maoist agenda, hence they should win. They said that only the Maoist Party could be trusted to carry out it’s agenda. 2. The CA Poll is part of the PEACE PROCESS. If Maoists were not streamlined through CA, then the peace process would be derailed.
5. Maoists had one power center, the others had more:
It is said that there are Oli clique, Jhalanath clique and so on in the UML and Deuba Clique and Koirala clique in NC, whereas in the Maoist Party, the rank and file followed the orders of their Chairperson, Prachanda.
Lessons learned from the results:
Rainbow Assembly: if the results of the CA election are taken in a positive way, we Nepalese, Indigenous Peoples, Women, Youth, Dalits , Madhesis, have the opportunity for the first time in the political history of Nepal to elect a decision making body that is a Rainbow Assembly.
Political parties forged common consensus: In Kathmandu, Ishwor Pokharel (UML) and Narahari Acharya (NC) should not have fought for the seat from the same constituency. There should be candidates only republic whoever s/he was. We have report that NC people requested voters to vote for them if they were DEMOCRATS and for Maoist if were pure COMMUNIST, referring that Maoists are genome communists.
Experienced political figures would have won: People may dislike UML leaders like Madhavkumar Nepal and Bharat Mohan Adhikari but the role they played in the peace process was mainly responsible for bringing Maoists into peace process. Had they been in CA, the country would have benefited by the experience of drafting the Constitution of Nepal-2047 and the Constitution of Nepal-2063. They also took the risk of bringing Maoists into the mainstream. Similarly, Krisnha Sitauala, Mahesh Acharaya should have won this election.
In conclusion, the most important part of the election is that while the results are inexplicable and unexpected, people have accepted the election. If the parties and the individual candidates did not accept the result, it would bring great misfortune to the country. Not only have Madhavkumar Nepal and Upendra Yadav accepted the result, it seems Suryabahadur Thapa, Pashupati Shamsher Rana, Kamal Thapa and even King Gyanendra appear to have accepted the outcome. Remember Zimbawe when the election results were not accepted, the country fell into chaos and anarchy, but in Nepal that did not happen.
Fatik Thapa Magar. Photo: Ashesh Dangol
Kathmandu, May 17, 2008
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